538 2024. Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Former president donald trump ended his presidency more unpopular than any of the last 12 presidents at the end of their first terms and he is still unpopular post.

The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for biden or trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Former president donald trump ended his presidency more unpopular than any of the last 12 presidents at the end of their first terms and he is still unpopular post.